Fifteen years after documenting sensitivity of corn and soybeans to extreme heat there is no apparent slowdown in yield growth. Why not? Mainly due to a "hole" in global warming.
I'm not an atmospheric scientist but I have heard that the central corn belt has mostly stable rainfall totals each year due to two fairly independent sources of moisture. One is the jet stream that goes west to east across the continent, bringing moisture. The second is moisture coming up as remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms that originate in the Gulf of Mexico.
Very nice post, and thanks for the shoutout to our substack. One point where I might disagree: I think that there is an emerging consensus that the cooling is due to agricultural activity:
Yeah, I linked to the second article and commented on it. I'm not super convineced by that evidence, especially after I had a student take a closer look. But I don't anticipate people will believe me over Huybers.
I think you nailed the really important question: what's going to happen in the future. If the rest of the globe keeps warming, then eventually summertime temps in this region have to rise. Let's hope it doesn't cause an abrupt decrease in production.
I'm not an atmospheric scientist but I have heard that the central corn belt has mostly stable rainfall totals each year due to two fairly independent sources of moisture. One is the jet stream that goes west to east across the continent, bringing moisture. The second is moisture coming up as remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms that originate in the Gulf of Mexico.
Great post, glad to see you are restarting your blogging g efforts
Very nice post, and thanks for the shoutout to our substack. One point where I might disagree: I think that there is an emerging consensus that the cooling is due to agricultural activity:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075604
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2825
Keep up the good work!
Yeah, I linked to the second article and commented on it. I'm not super convineced by that evidence, especially after I had a student take a closer look. But I don't anticipate people will believe me over Huybers.
I think you nailed the really important question: what's going to happen in the future. If the rest of the globe keeps warming, then eventually summertime temps in this region have to rise. Let's hope it doesn't cause an abrupt decrease in production.